It will micro crash many times, and almost certainly there will be a significant crash but timing this will be difficult. The market could crash tomorrow, in a week, in a month or two years. When it does, it could be 30%, 50% or even 80%. The crash could happen very quickly or drag on slowly over a more extended period. While I don’t expect a 2-year bear market like durung 2013/14, one is entirely possible. I think the market dynamics are very different from the last bear market, where the ecosystem was in its infancy.
However, the cryptocurrency is a varied and often contradictory, marketplace. There are well-over 1,500 crypto projects out there; people who bought bitcoin at $20,000; others, like the Winklevoss twins who got in at $0.08; hulking great-big corporations in financial centers like Hong Kong, London and New York preparing $20m OTC buy-ins, as well as middle-aged dentists in the American Midwest injecting $50 into obscure coins that they think might well have a chance.
Steindorff: Distributed Global Fund II is a long-only, stage agnostic investor in protocols. We invest in the tokens of established protocols and in the seed and pre-ICO rounds of early stage protocols. In either case, we look for protocols that are well positioned to capture market share from centralized incumbents. The protocols we invest in share three common traits: they are tokenized, open source and decentralized. We believe protocols with these characteristics represent a paradigm shift in how human economic behavior is organized and incentivized. This shift has the potential to fundamentally alter many of the world’s largest industries, and create investment opportunities that are desirable for thoughtful, long-term investors. It is important to note that we don’t employ leverage and we seek to be tax efficient, our investors are looking for broad exposure to this new digital asset class while reducing taxable events, transaction costs and exposure to unnecessary risks.
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“There will be a ramp-up time,” said Ari Paul, chief investment officer of Blocktower Capital Advisors LP. “There just isn’t a rush. The professional traders will mostly be looking to do arbitrage, between the futures and bitcoin itself. I don’t expect massive money flows right away but then I expect gradual buying from people who want passive exposure” without buying bitcoin directly.
According to Tolstoy, what lay behind the successful repelling of the French was not the genius or leadership of Russia’s leaders but rather the acknowledgment that victory could not be attributed to one or even a group of factors but quite simply, everything. To Tolstoy, the role of the individual in history was inevitably subservient to the greater panoply of events within which that actor operated.
Bitcoin v alt balancing: my BTC v altcoin positions are balanced relative to how Bitcoin market dominance is trending, you can see this chart on CoinMarketCap. If Bitcoin market dominance is at 50% but falling, then my Bitcoin position will be at less than 40%. If Bitcoin market dominance is 50% but rising then my Bitcoin position will be over 60%. The reason I keep it ahead of the trend but never 100% of one is that BTC v altcoin market cycles change, there are times when they trade inversely and other times where they rise and fall together and as such this gives a more even growth trajectory.
In the case of bitcoin, my personal belief is that there is enough to justify the possibility of long term gain based on fundamentals and first mover advantage. If everything goes right, I do see a future in which it’s possible that bitcoin achieves a market cap similar to that of gold’s, given that so far as I can see, it provides all the benefits gold does, and a host of incredibly valuable advantages on top of those existing benefits. I even see a future where it just might be possible that bitcoin goes even further, and becomes a dominant leading global currency. It’s also possible that bitcoin’s blockchain is used to power many future technological innovations, such as smart contracts and even DAOs, and thereby creates and imbues itself with even more value.
I’ve literally dipped my toe in the water this week, and it’s good to see that I’m headed the right direction in spreading the investment over various alts, as well as Daddy BTC. I’ve had an even split until now, using tips from online articles as to where to invest, so will head off to your how to research article and see what I can find for myself and come up with a nice balance for the portfolio.
Long-term investing is simply as its name says – taking a long-term view of investments. Everyone defines ‘long-term’ differently. In the stock market, ‘long-term’ normally means anything that lasts years… However, given the fact that the cryptocurrency market moves extremely quickly, we can scale that number down to couple of months or a year. If we look at stock market investment, the legendary investor, Warren Buffet, is an advocate of long-term investment because of the many advantages it has to offer.
You won’t always have time to buy once the price starts recovering (or to sell when the price starts dipping). With the last point in mind, sometimes cryptos can rally or correct by 10% or more in a matter of moments after a harsh dip. It can be next to impossible to buy into some rallies once the price starts recovering or to sell once it starts dropping (without a market order and some slippage at least). It is from this perspective that it can be a solid strategy to mistime the bottom rather than waiting for the price to go back up. Sure, it is more conservative to wait for a trend to be confirmed, but this method can work much better after a very harsh dip down to a key support level you think the price will rebound off of quickly.
Historical statistical data of a growing economy has proven that it works: Looking at the S&P 500 over a 5-year period, it has achieved a return of around 60%. The same can be said for the FTSE 100, which achieved a return of 25% over the same time period. Markets generally tend to trend upwards over a period of time, so with this in mind, long-term investing does have its merits. This can be said not only about the last 5 years, but for almost every 5 years throughout the history of the new economy.
Please note that virtual currency is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value, but it does not have legal tender status. Virtual currencies are sometimes exchanged for U.S. dollars or other currencies around the world, but they are not currently backed nor supported by any government or central bank. Their value is completely derived by market forces of supply and demand, and they are more volatile than traditional fiat currencies. Profits and losses related to this volatility are amplified in margined futures contracts.