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It has nothing to do with a well-thought-out investment strategy that will take into account elements such as company results or factors that may affect the stock performance. It is also impossible to pick an appropriate investment strategy without analyzing the investors’ risk tolerance, i.e. the level or amount of capital they are prepared to lose. These are just some of the many things to consider before entering the crypto market.
Of course, last year's cryptocurrency craze ran circles around traditional equities, including stocks. After beginning the year with a combined market cap of just $17.7 billion, the aggregate market cap of all virtual currencies by year's end had surged to $613 billion, equaling a climb of more than 3,300%. There may not be another year like this for any asset class for as long as we live.
I’ve literally dipped my toe in the water this week, and it’s good to see that I’m headed the right direction in spreading the investment over various alts, as well as Daddy BTC. I’ve had an even split until now, using tips from online articles as to where to invest, so will head off to your how to research article and see what I can find for myself and come up with a nice balance for the portfolio.
Historical statistical data of a growing economy has proven that it works: Looking at the S&P 500 over a 5-year period, it has achieved a return of around 60%. The same can be said for the FTSE 100, which achieved a return of 25% over the same time period. Markets generally tend to trend upwards over a period of time, so with this in mind, long-term investing does have its merits. This can be said not only about the last 5 years, but for almost every 5 years throughout the history of the new economy.
But here, more than anywhere else, is where you need to proceed with caution. Bitcoin is already incredibly risky, imagine what risks smaller and lesser-known crypto brings. Rounding out a portfolio with other cryptocurrencies may be able to help you evaluate the state and perhaps the future of that market, but many of them can quickly prove to be a flash in the pan. The sudden rise of initial coin offerings -- a method of crowdfunding new cryptocurrencies in a way that avoids venture capital entirely -- has many people excited for the future, but also has many wondering if it's going to create an even more dangerous bitcoin bubble.
There are far too many variables and unknowns to take into consideration with most speculative bets, and cryptocurrency in particular, to be able to hope for anything so nice and clean as an exact mathematical probability of how + or -EV a given bet on a given cryptocurrency might turn out, just as there are far too many unknowns to calculate the precise fundamental present and future potential value of a cryptocurrency for the purpose of value investing analysis, but regardless, holding both principles at large as a general guiding strategy in determining one’s actions here and elsewhere is a good bet.
The latter is very important, as situations where investors lose their funds due to hacks and security breaches happen quite often. This is why traders try to pick exchanges which can offer insurance (like Coinbase does) or have some sort of reserve fund to cover expenses if something happens. For example, Bithumb exchange which was recently hacked, promised that it would fully compensate users out of its fund of $450 million.
Personally, for myself, a quick back of the napkin calculation that I can do to estimate the possible future value of bitcoin is to see what the market has valued all of the gold in the world at, and use this as a rough guiding principle for seeing how much appetite the world currently has for something that can hedge against other currencies and holds similar characteristics to gold as a store of value. I can see that the total value of all the gold in the world is over 8 trillion dollars, and consequently, if bitcoin were to reach that same total valuation, each bitcoin, assuming 21 million eventual bitcoins, would be worth approximately $400,000. Dividing this by bitcoin’s current value, I can see that there’s still room for approximately 150X gains. This means that if I truly believe this is a possible outcome for bitcoin, then as long as I believe this outcome has more than a 0.66 percent chance of happening, or 1/150 chances of success, it would be an +EV bet to make.
Just because there is this element of luck, however, does not mean that you necessarily shouldn’t play the odds, if you so believe with very good reason that those odds are in your favor. What you do have to make sure of, however, is that you have such good reason to believe that those odds are in your favor, and that you don’t put up more than you can afford to lose, given the odds. The key takeaway and lesson to be learned, again, is to invest, both in speculations and in ‘safer’ investments, based on firm knowledge of the underlying asset and intrinsic analysis, to the extent possible, and never merely based on price movements.
If you are looking to improve, using external tools is a must. The use of these tools is a small price to pay compared to the outsized returns and limited risk that they bring with them. There are a number of types of tools available currently, and each have their strengths and weaknesses. However, many believe that it is the next generation of crypto trading tools that could make a real impact on how people trade. While the current tools are certainly beneficial, they come nowhere close to the dynamism and flexibility brought by these new gen tools, especially those utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning to better capture profits in the crypto market.
The best thing you can do to minimize risk and invest responsibly is to do your research. Look into different wallets and exchanges. Find trusted sources to answer your questions. If you need some guidance on how to break into the market, find a firm like IBI or International Blockchain Consulting to help you navigate the constantly fluctuating market.
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Bitcoin was the investing story of 2017, with prices of the cryptocurrency soaring into the stratosphere. That success lured many bitcoin investors into the market at what proved to be a short-term top, and since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has lost about half its value and is down more than 65% from its highest levels. Some see bitcoin's pullback as proof that the cryptocurrency craze is over, while others think it could represent yet another in a long line of buying opportunities following major pullbacks.
Virtual currencies, including bitcoin, experience significant price volatility. Fluctuations in the underlying virtual currency's value between the time you place a trade for a virtual currency futures contract and the time you attempt to liquidate it will affect the value of your futures contract and the potential profit and losses related to it. Investors must be very cautious and monitor any investment that they make.